The debate over potential changes at the U.S. Postal Service is like a fight over the dessert bar on the Titanic. Raising first-class postage rates and eliminating Saturday delivery won't matter much when the Postal Service hits the iceberg.

And USPS will do just that, soon, unless there is a reimagining of its mission.

First, the broad question must be asked: Should the federal government continue to compete against the private sector? The U.S. Postal Service has been losing money for years, whereas competitors FedEx and UPS are thriving.

If the government is to remain in the delivery business, it must develop a workable plan for the digital age.

The Postal Service projects deficits of $238 billion through 2020. Raising rates slightly and reducing delivery would make tiny dents -- and that's the best possible outcome; in the worst, the changes would accelerate the service's problems. Meanwhile, the debate obscures the fact that digital communications are fast eliminating the need for mail delivery.

To understand what could happen to the Postal Service, look at Kodak, whose 130-year history includes the kind of dominance that USPS long enjoyed.

Even as the long-term threat from digital photography became clear in the 1990s, Kodak temporized. It tinkered with its traditional film, paper and chemicals businesses, never conceding that digital would all but eliminate them.

The Postal Service, too, is looking at the future as a variant of the present. USPS, convinced of the long-term need for physical mail delivery, has been relying on increases in volume, according to a Government Accountability Office report published in April. Yet delivery volume for first-class mail fell 22 percent from 1998 through 2007, tumbled an additional 13 percent last year and was down 3 percent in the first half of this year despite heavy Census Bureau mailings.

Step one is for the Postal Service to acknowledge that its future will have almost no connection to the present. Anything that can be conceived of as information will, in time, be sent electronically. The Internet is faster, cheaper and more convenient for everyone.

USPS' future lies in things that need to be delivered physically: Shoes, computers and other objects. On those items, the Internet can't compete, and USPS has assets that could let it take on UPS and FedEx.

USPS needs to start with the future and work backward to the present. It needs to forecast volumes for all types of its business five, 10 and 15 years out and design a business model that will thrive under those scenarios. Only then can it figure out what radical changes need to be made now. In other words, USPS needs to first design the whole bridge, then build it.

The Postal Service must start by convincing Congress and other stakeholders that it is in the middle of a full-blown crisis. It can either lead change or be overrun by it.

"Money Q&A" and "Company Town" are featured exclusively at PG+, a members-only web site of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Our introduction to PG+ gives you all the details.